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Jake’s Big Ass Oscar Rundown, Part 5: Writing, Directing, & Best Picture

Jake Brooks

Well, here we are. The last categories. The people who think up the movies, the people who make them, and the movies themselves. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Screenplay by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, based on the short stories All Gold Canyon by Jack London, The Gal Who Got Rattled by Stewart Edward White, and short stories by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, based on the memoir Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir by Lee Israel If Beale Street Could Talk – Screenplay by Barry Jenkins, based on the novel by James Baldwin A Star Is Born – Screenplay by Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters; based on the 1954 screenplay by Moss Hart and the 1976 screenplay by Joan Didion, John Gregory Dunne & Frank Pierson; based on a story by Robert Carson & William A. Wellman The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is an anthology that tells several unconventional stories in the Old West. BlacKkKlansman is about a black cop who began an undercover operation to investigate the KKK. Can You Ever Forgive Me? tells the true story of an unsuccessful author who turns to forgery. If Beale Street Could Talk is a story about a pregnant young woman and her wrongfully arrested boyfriend. A Star Is Born is the fourth telling of a romance between a performer on the rise and her mentor on an alcoholic decline. A Star Is Born traces the same story beats as its three previous iterations and that can read less like “adaptation” and more like “copying.” If Beale Street Could Talk is heartbreakingly beautiful but the Oscars seem almost determined not to recognize it. You can never entirely count out the Coen Brothers but the anthology format almost by design is uneven and voters will likely be more attached to individual segments than the movie as a whole. BlacKkKlansman says in its opening that it is “based on some fo’ real fo’ real shit,” but the changes it makes to Ron Stallworth’s true story are what make it compelling: the fictional love interest from black liberation movement to serve as ideological counterpoint, the fictional bombing attempt to give the film heavier stakes and a climax, and the many many ties to more modern politics to emphasize the story’s relevance today. It deserves to win if for no other reason than to get Spike Lee up on that stage. But writers love writing about writers, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? falls firmly within that category. Plus Nicole Holofcener is someone who makes movies beloved by the few people who see them. This is a chance for that small audience to show her some appreciation. Snubs: The Death of Stalin What Should Win: BlacKkKlansman What Will Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me? BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY The Favourite, written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara First Reformed, written by Paul Schrader Green Book, written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly Roma, written by Alfonso Cuarón Vice, written by Adam McKay The Favourite tells the story Sarah Churchill and Abigail Hill fighting over the favor (or “favour”) of Queen Anne. First Reformed is the story of a Reverend battling issues of faith while searching for the way to help a troubled parishioner. Green Book is about how racist chauffeurs can solve racism. Roma is Alfonso Cuarón’s fictionalized tribute to the nanny who helped raise him in 1970s Mexico City. Vice follows Dick Cheney’s journey from alcoholic lineman to most powerful Vice President in American history. After he won the Golden Globe *sigh* Nick Vallelonga took time to fawn over Linda Cardellini’s portrayal of his mother. Because that’s what Green Book is for him: a love letter to his parents. The Civil Rights movement is secondary, if not tertiary. He might have been a front-runner at some point but between some resurfaced tweets about Muslims and co-writer Peter Farrelly’s old habit of exposing himself, the tide of public opinion has mercifully turned against it. (Brian Currie, to the best of my knowledge, has no shameful scandals…except that he co-wrote Green Book.) Alfonso Cuarón also wrote a love letter to his family. (With all the family love in this category I’m surprised Pawel Pawlikowski didn’t sneak in here for another Cold War nomination.) Roma is a beautiful film but the visuals overshadow the writing, so this will be one of those rare categories it won’t be in the lead on. Vice is very much the opposite of a love letter. My personal politics skew heavily to the anti-Cheney, as I am sure the views of most Oscar voters do, but hell if this script doesn’t lay it on SO. DAMN. THICK. I’m splitting my “Should” and “Will” predictions but, to be honest, Paul Schrader stands a chance. I think he should win just on the basis of the weird, absorbing script for First Reformed (a movie criminally overlooked this year), but the Academy could give it to him on the strength of all the other classics like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, American Gigolo, or Affliction, for which he was not even nominated. (We all try to forget The Canyons. He didn’t write it, only directed.) However when it comes to writing, snappy barbs in a period setting will probably launch The Favourite onto the winners’ dais. It is the exact type of movie the phrase “wickedly hilarious” was coined for, so I can’t be too mad about it. What Should Win: First Reformed, but really just please for the love of all that is pure, just not Green Book What Will Win: The Favourite BEST DIRECTOR Alfonso Cuarón, Roma Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman Adam McKay, Vice Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War Cold War was brilliantly directed and in a just world Pawel Pawlikowski would be a serious competitor in this category, but this is one of those cases where the nomination IS his recognition. The Big Short was an interesting stylistic pivot for Adam McKay, but Vice feels like even more of that irreverent storytelling technique to decidedly diminished returns. Yorgos Lanthimos made his most accessible film to date with The Favourite but, between the weird rabbit ending (not a spoiler) and way more fisheye lenses than you would expect, I don’t think this is Best Director territory. It would, again, be great to see Spike Lee onstage especially since (like Shrader) he has been so frequently ignored for movies like Do the Right Thing, Malcolm X, Clockers, 25th Hour, or even Inside Man. But this is Alfonso Cuarón’s year. I must, once again, revel in ethnic pride that Mexicans have absolutely DOMINATED this category in the last decade. ¡Viva México! Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón BEST PICTURE Black Panther BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody The Favourite Green Book Roma A Star Is Born Vice The easiest way to predict Oscar (with high accuracy) is to follow previous award shows, particularly the guild awards. The vast majority of Academy members are in those guilds so they are a pretty reliable indicator. But this year an uncommon occurrence has transpired. The guilds are all over the map. The actors picked Black Panther. Writers Guild Awards (split between adapted and original) went to two movies not nominated in the category: Can You Ever Forgive Me? and the shut-out Eighth Grade. Producers picked… ugh… Green Book. The Directors went for Roma. The Producers Guild has historically been the best predictor of Best Picture but that has fluctuated a lot in recent years (and will hopefully be off this year). But actors are the most-represented profession in the Academy so their pick carries some weight. It’s an atypically open category this year. So let’s dive in for a closer look… Superhero movies have become ubiquitous in the twenty-first century. Even more so in the past decade with the coming of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. While mostly escapist fare, some are indisputably among the best films of their respective year. The Dark Knight’s Best Picture snub in 2009 was the reason the category was expanded to “between five and ten” films. Black Panther is the first actual superhero movie (no, Birdman doesn’t count) to be nominated. Going beyond the fact that it checks off all the boxes for “great superhero flick” it also addresses serious social issues. Even if those issues are debated with armor-plated rhinos. It also is the biggest showcase we’ve had for afrofuturism and an aspirational portrayal of a black utopia. Iron Man was excellent but it didn’t INSPIRE people the way this movie has. It didn’t give little black kids the opportunity to see a superhero who looked like them. It didn’t have a villain with a legitimate grievance who is still a villain because of his methodology but ACTUALLY CHANGES THE HERO’S THINKING. It’s spectacular and if any movie deserves to set this Oscar milestone, it’s this one. Ron Stallworth’s time investigating the KKK yielded no arrests. As mentioned earlier, many fictional elements were added to improve the movie. I have not read it, but I have heard that Stallworth’s memoir is a dry, procedural book. What Spike Lee brought to BlacKkKlansman was a sense of urgency. The shouts of “America First” remind us of the things we still see today, just no longer shrouded in white hoods. David Duke, despite having a “career-ruining” downfall decades ago has again surfaced as a relevant public figure. The movie ties the Klan’s hatred into 2017’s shameful events in Charlottesville and the death of Heather Heyer. The movie still manages to be uproariously funny and also compellingly tense in parts, but it’s the connection to today that makes it great. I watched a YouTube video recently by Patrick H. Williams. He suggested that anyone who wants to make a musician biopic needs to first watch Jake Kasdan’s comedic masterpiece Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story. And if Walk Hard does it, don’t do it. That’s pretty brilliant advice. I liked Bohemian Rhapsody. I usually like movies like this. I’m looking forward to Mötley Crüe biopic The Dirt and the Elton John biopic Rocketman (from Dexter Fletcher, the uncredited director who finished Bohemian Rhapsody when its original credited alleged sexual predator director bailed). But this is basically a TV movie with a budget and kickass soundtracks forced into a template that has been done again and again. I diverge from a lot of critics who don’t like Rami Malek’s performance. I do, though it’s not the best of the year. That’s kind of the movie. It’s fine. It’s fun. But it’s not superlative. Not Best Picture. I am told much more of The Favourite actually happened than you might think. As mentioned before, I’m not married to historical accuracy in film. This is not a stuffy costume drama. This is Mean Girls with affairs of state hanging in the balance… and way more R-rated content. In Yorgos Lanthimos’s oeuvre, I have only previously seen The Lobster. I liked the premise and about half of the actual film itself. The Favourite sees him for the first time working from a script that is not his own. That might explain why it’s not quite as coldly off-putting as The Lobster (or, from what I hear, Dogtooth or The Killing of a Sacred Deer). It is very good. Not the best of the nominees but far from the worst. Speaking of… If you have been reading closely, you may have picked up on the fact that I do not like Green Book. It’s not without its charm. Sophomoric as their humor may be I have always enjoyed the movies that Peter Farrelly has made with his brother Bobby (There’s Something About Mary, Dumb and Dumber, Stuck on You). They have solid stories and some real heart, between all the bodily fluid jokes. There are shades of that in Green Book (even some mild crude humor). But mostly it’s a White Savior movie. It sidelines the accomplishments and dignity in the face of prejudice of the real man who should by all rights be the protagonist in favor of a guy who is explicitly racist early in the movie. In Philadelphia, Denzel Washington goes from homophobic bigot to being an actual friend to Tom Hanks’ homosexual character so I’m not saying that the bigotry-to-enlightenment narrative NEVER works… but it requires a much more deft touch than anyone involved in this movie seems to have. This movie has the RACIST white character basically TEACHING the black character HOW TO BE BLACK via soul music and… and I feel racist just writing this… EATING. FRIED. CHICKEN. (On a side note: the racist white lead is shown to be unexpectedly chill with Dr. Shirley’s homosexuality. It’s almost played for a laugh with how out-of-character it seems.) I know I have said multiple times in this very article that historical accuracy is subordinate to the story, but there are limits. Dr. Shirley’s family has said enough that it seems like a ridiculous amount of liberties were taken all to push him into a supporting role in his own story. Nick Vallelonga wanted to lionize his father by writing a screenplay. Ok, but he could have written how an uneducated bouncer from mob-run clubs became a reliable character actor (I’m a big fan of The Sopranos) instead of using the cache of Civil Rights movies to drum up some interest by acting like his father was any more than an employee to a MUCH MORE INTERESTING PERSON… which is all to say that this not my pick. Then again, it is the movie that would make me apoplectically furious if it won and after November of 2016 I feel like the universe does sometimes make its decisions that way… A foreign language film has never won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Movies like Amour, Il Postino, Life Is Beautiful, and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon have been nominated (making then shoo-ins for Best Foreign Language Film) but none have taken home the big prize. This really looks like it could be the year that changes. Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma is a beautiful movie. Every single shot is composed with the eye of a master film-maker. The performances are authentic and moving. The story is relatable. Jeremy Scott from the much-maligned CinemaSins YouTube channel even went as far as to say watching the movie made him a more empathetic person. All that should make the case for Roma, but we live in a more complicated world. Back in the 90s a movie producer and serial rapist who I don’t feel the need to name changed the way studios campaigned for Oscars. And it worked really well for him. Really well. It was a crass manipulation of the system but since it worked for him everyone started doing it. Why do I bring this up even though he was run out of the industry in 2017 and is currently awaiting trial? Because Netflix has been going HARD for Roma. There are many who decry Netflix as the antithesis of true cinema (given their adverse impact on theatrical ticket sales). So they have been chasing prestige like their life depended on it. From pushes in recent years for Beasts of No Nation and Mudbound to signing big names like Cuarón, the also nominated Coen Brothers, and Martin Scorsese (whose return to crime films starring Robert Deniro The Irishman will be released by Netflix this year). Now Oscar voters has certainly become used to studio campaigns but when a movie’s got the goods like Roma does, is that just the extra push that gets it the gold? Before watching A Star Is Born, I had not seen A Star Is Born, A Star Is Born, or A Star Is Born. (I’ve always said my favorite version of A Star Is Born was The Artist because it’s formally innovative, funny, and has a way happier ending.) Honest Trailers (I’m quoting a lot of YouTube today…) said “it’s a once in a generation film… literally.” Remakes haven’t fared well at the Oscars in recent decades. The Departed is the only won that’s won in my lifetime (and True Grit the only other one nominated in that time). But something about A Star Is Born captured the hearts of the movie-going public (and a weirdly enthusiastic Sean Penn). Maybe it was the unexpectedly great star turn of Lady Gaga. (I liked her in Machete Kills but was NOT seeing nominations in her future.) Maybe it was a surprisingly great and Eastwood-esque directorial debut from Bradley Cooper. Maybe it was the music. (Though pop quiz: hum another song besides “Shallow.”) But A Star Is Born seems to have fallen in with the likes of Up in the Air, The Revenant, and La La Land: movies that seemed like early front-runners before their momentum dropped off. There is a school of thought that one should keep personal politics out of movie reviews, but you nonetheless may have picked up by now that I’m something of a liberal. I have no love for Dick Cheney. A movie about Cheney losing what little soul he has to start with while altering the nature of executive power for the worse is not going to offend my sensibilities. But have you ever wanted to scream “WE GET IT! HE SUCKS!” at the screen before? Because that was me during a lot of Vice. He brings some of the stylistic flourishes of The Big Short to this film and in a couple cases, like a great credits gag and a truly shocking twist about one character, those flourishes really work. But overall it feels like… is there a phrase for “hatchet job” but like when it’s totally deserved and accurate? Snubs: First Reformed, If Beale Street Could Talk, and I’m probably alone in this but Hearts Beat Loud What Should Win: Hands down the best movie of 2018 was If Beale Street Could Talk, but of the nominees… look there are five out of eight films that I would be totally fine with as the winner. If I search my heart I don’t know if it’s truly the best of the category, but my favorite nominee is Black Panther. Drumroll please… What Will Win: Roma Well, I guess that’s it… EXCEPT OH NO IT’S NOT! There will be a Part 6 to the Big Ass Oscar Rundown™ called the Postmortem, wherein I gloat about just how spot-on all my predictions were… or, in the preposterous case that I am not omniscient, what I got wrong. See you then!






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