Jake’s Big Ass Oscar Rundown, Part 2: Acting!

Since Thespis first took the stage, we’ve been pretty taken with actors. Aside from Best Picture, the acting categories are probably what people focus most on. In fact a smarter Oscar prognosticator would probably save the acting article for later to maintain a steady escalation of reader interest and run his Documentary/Foreign Film/Animation article next… but I still have to catch a matinee of Free Solo tomorrow so here’s my article on categories where I’ve already seen all of the nominees! BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Mahershala Ali in Green Book Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell in Vice
Ali plays Dr. Don Shirley, a brilliant black musician touring the segregated South who is somehow relegated to a supporting role in his own story. Driver plays Phillip “Flip” Zimmerman, a Jewish cop forced to go undercover with the Ku Klux Klan to be the in-person white face to his black colleague’s on-the-phone identity. Elliott plays Bobby Maine, the very Sam Elliott-like older brother and manager of a famous country star. Grant plays Jack Hock, a homosexual destitute bon vivant and raconteur roped into a friend’s forgery scheme. Rockwell plays George W. Bush, someone liberals THOUGHT would be the presidential low point of their lives. (*sniff* I need a minute…)
Coming off a win in this category last year, I don’t think Sam Rockwell is going to get the repeat, as entertaining as his Bush was (hehe). Adam Driver is highly celebrated by critics and will probably find another role to get back in the Academy’s sights. While it’s great that the Academy is finally recognizing Sam Elliott for his many years of phenomenal Sam Elliott-ing, his role in A Star Is Born is pretty short on screen time. Shorter roles have won before, but it’s the exception rather than the rule.
Richard E. Grant is an actor who has been around doing quality work for decades but doesn’t get much recognition for it. I have a feeling that the nomination is all the recognition he’s going to get. (Also on social media it is absolutely delightful how much he is enjoying the award show circuit.) His performance as a charming ne’er-do-well had s certain vulnerability that made him real. But the likely winner is a man who took home this trophy two years ago. For all the problems I have with Green Book (SO MANY!), Mahershala Ali carries himself with intelligence and dignity befitting a man of Dr. Don Shirley’s accomplishments. Dignity against racial prejudice checks some big boxes for Academy voters and Ali has already won several awards for the part. I imagine this trend is going to keep up Sunday night.
Snubs: Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther (really), Jonathan Pryce in The Wife, Tom Waits in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Jason Isaacs in The Death of Stalin, Colman Domingo in If Beale Street Could Talk Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams in Vice Marina de Tavira in Roma Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone in The Favourite Rachel Weisz in The Favourite
Adams plays Lynne Cheney, the Lady Macbeth to politician Dick Cheney. De Tavira plays Sofia, a wealthy woman whose marriage is falling apart. King plays Sharon Rivers, a woman supporting her pregnant daughter and fighting to help exonerate her wrongfully imprisoned son-in-law. Stone plays Abigail Hill, an ambitious social climber in the court of Queen Anne. Weiss plays Sarah Churchill (ancestor to future Prime Minister Winston), Queen Anne’s loyal but manipulative courtier.
First thing’s first, two actresses from the same movie almost invariably split the vote and neither win. So Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, the two previous Oscar winners in this category, are out. A shame as they are both wickedly funny in The Favourite. Marina de Tavira was a surprise nomination and as good as she is in Roma, someone people didn’t even expect to be nominated is unlikely to win. Amy Adams shouldn’t really win for Vice but seeing as she’s been nominated five previous times (though snubbed for Arrival) the Academy might give her an award in recognition of all the roles she has played before. But I think this award will go to the person who actually deserves it: Regina King. Like many actors of color, Regina King has had a long career of being underutilized and under appreciated. If Beale Street Could Talk gives her the showcase she needs and I think it’s undeniable.
Snubs: Zoe Kazan in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Mackenzie Davis in Tully, Yordanos Shiferaw in Capernaum Who Should Win: Regina King Who Will Win: Regina King BEST ACTOR Christian Bale in Vice Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody Viggo Mortensen in Green Book
Bale plays Dick Cheney, Vice President to George W. Bush who expanded the role of his office and the scope of executive power. Cooper plays alcoholic country musician Jackson Maine, who mentors and romances a younger singer. Dafoe plays iconic painter Vincent Van Gogh, struggling to make his art as well as battle mental illness. Malek plays legendary Queen lead singer Freddie Mercury, who goes through the standard rock star biopic arc. Mortensen plays Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga, a racist who decides back people ain’t so bad after chauffeuring one around the South and *sigh* teaching him about popular black music and how to eat fried chicken.
Okay I will mention this many more times in the course of this Big Ass Oscar Rundown, but man did I have a lot of problems with Green Book. I will try to limit them to the appropriate categories. So this is time to say that Viggo Mortensen plays his role like he is in a Saturday Night Live sketch about The Sopranos. (Funnily enough, in real life Tony Lip did play mob boss Carmine Lupertazzi on that show.) Bradley Cooper is very good in A Star Is Born and joins Heath Ledger’s role in Brokeback Mountain in the hall of Great Mumbly Performances but I don’t think this is his year. Willem Dafoe is fantastic in At Eternity’s Gate and is probably my favorite nominated performance in the category despite Dafoe being 26 years older than Van Gogh lived to be.
Rami Malek is the only nominee in the category who has not been nominated before (in fact all the others have been nominated multiple times). His chief competitor is Christian Bale, the only nominee who has previously won an Oscar. The battle here is craft versus heart. Bale’s Cheney is pitch perfect in every scene but there’s something… missing at the heart of his performance. Malek has some difficulty talking through fake teeth and with an inconsistent British accent but he throws himself into the part with abandon. Mercury’s arc in the film is the same as every other rock star biopic but Cheney starts Vice as a prick and finishes it as a prick. Arguably a much bigger prick but that’s more of a straight line than an arc. I think heart wins out and Rami takes home the gold. Plus anyone with a soul likes Freddie Mercury better than Dick Cheney.
Snubs: ETHAN FUCKING HAWKE IN FIRST REFORMED, Zain al Rafeea in Capernaum (one of the absolute best child performances I have ever seen), John David Washington in BlacKKKlansman Who Should Win: Ethan Hawke BUT HE’S NOT NOMINATED! So Willem Dafoe, I guess? Who Will Win: Rami Malek BEST ACTRESS Yalitza Aparicio in Roma Glenn Close in The Wife Olivia Colman in The Favourite Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Aparicio plays Cleodegaria “Cleo” Gutiérrez, a housekeeper who plays an integral role in a family, while being apprehensive about possibly starting one of her own. Close plays Joan Castleman, the wife of a celebrated author harboring secrets and hidden resentment. Colman plays Queen Anne of Great Britain, an insecure monarch who delights in how her courtiers jockey for her favor (or “favour,” being English and all). Lady Gaga (sticking with the stage name into her serious acting career) plays Ally Campana, an aspiring singer who is taken under the wing of an alcoholic country star. McCarthy plays Lee Israel, an unsuccessful author who turns to forging literary correspondence.
I think this is probably the closest category. No one would really surprise me as a winner. So let’s talk this out. Melissa McCarthy excels in a lower key role than she’s known for relying on acerbic wit instead of broad physical humor. Early in awards show season, Lady Gaga was considered a shoo-in for this award but… is saying “her star has faded” too on-the-nose? (And is saying “on-the-nose” too punny?) Yalitza Aparicio is amazing, plus the kind of “never acted before” story that Academy voters love, but only to the degree that the nomination IS her award. To paraphrase a famous red carpet quote from recent years “I’m rooting for everyone Mexican.”
But truth be told a different performance is my favorite of the year. Olivia Colman’s queen is a mess of insecurity, sheltered indecision, and vindictive pettiness. In award shows that separate comedy and drama, Colman has won in comedy. But the front-runner is definitely Glenn Close. She is phenomenal in The Wife, and she has been nominated six previous times. The Academy has been known to give “career Oscars” that are nominally for one role but really for a great body of work. Close’s performance in The Wife is definitely award-worthy on its own merits so when you add in her career, I think her day has come.
Snubs: Joanna Kulig in Cold War Who Should Win: Olivia Colman Who Will Win: Glenn Close
So those are my picks! Jake’s Big Ass Oscar Rundown will return with my (previously-promised) article on the categories for Best Animated Film, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Documentary Feature, Best Original Score, and Best Original Song. Until then…